Nigeria’s latest economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics present a mixed picture of an economy experiencing stronger external trade performance while still contending with inflationary pressures and slowing growth.
The most recent Foreign Trade Statistics report for the first quarter of 2026 shows a significant improvement in Nigeria’s external trade position. Total merchandise trade stood at approximately ₦34.89 trillion, with exports accounting for ₦21.27 trillion (60.85%) and imports valued at ₦13.62 trillion (39.15%).
This resulted in a trade surplus of about ₦7.55 trillion, representing a sharp increase from the surplus recorded in the previous quarter. The improvement was driven largely by rising crude oil exports and a decline in petroleum product imports.
The figures suggest that Nigeria is benefiting from improved oil production and export earnings, while local refining capacity is helping to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.
Export structure
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s dominant export commodity, accounting for the bulk of foreign exchange earnings. However, non-oil exports have continued to show encouraging growth. Products such as cocoa, urea fertilizer, cashew nuts, and other agricultural commodities have recorded increased demand in international markets, contributing to export diversification efforts.
While Europe remains a major destination for Nigerian exports, trade relations with Asian and North American countries also remains strong.
Interestingly, imports declined in the first quarter of 2026 compared to previous periods, particularly petroleum product imports. The reduction in fuel imports reflects the growing impact of domestic refining activities and government efforts to conserve foreign exchange. However, Nigeria continues to import significant volumes of machinery, industrial equipment, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and manufactured goods.
The NBS report indicates that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.89 percent in real terms during the period. This is a slight slowdown from previous quarters. While growth remains positive, it indicates that economic expansion is occurring at a more moderate pace amid global uncertainties and domestic structural challenges.
Services, telecommunications, trade, agriculture, and financial services have continued to support growth while oil sector performance has also improved due to increased production levels.
Inflation remains a concern
Although inflation is significantly lower than the levels recorded in 2024, prices are still rising. The headline inflation rate increased from 15.38 percent in March 2026 to 15.69 percent in April 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report. Rising food prices, transportation costs, and global energy market pressures continue to influence consumer prices.
Analysts note that geopolitical developments, including tensions in the Middle East and their effect on fuel prices, remain key inflationary risks for Nigeria.
The latest available labour force data show unemployment at 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly higher than the 4.6 percent recorded in the preceding quarter. While the official unemployment rate remains relatively low under the revised methodology, concerns persist over underemployment, informal sector dominance, and the quality of jobs available to young Nigerians.
Key Takeaways
- Nigeria’s trade position has strengthened, with exports significantly exceeding imports.
- A trade surplus of ₦7.55 trillion in Q1 2026 reflects stronger oil exports and reduced fuel imports.
- GDP growth remains positive at 3.89 percent, though slower than policymakers would prefer.
- Inflation remains elevated at 15.69 percent, continuing to affect household purchasing power.
- Non-oil exports are growing, particularly cocoa, fertilizer, and agricultural products, supporting diversification efforts.
- External reserves and investor confidence have improved, leading to positive assessments from international rating agencies.
Overall, the latest NBS figures suggest that Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals are improving, particularly in trade and external balances. However, sustaining growth, reducing inflation, creating quality jobs, and deepening economic diversification remain critical challenges for policymakers.
